• Tel: (646) 452-6700
  • US Toll-Free: (800) 829-4337
  • Fax: (212) 599-1916

We take great pride in our firm's intellectual capital.

Sharing current views and opinions showcases the thought leadership we bring to our clients.

Current Views

Everything but the Data

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) finished their two-day meeting and released their usual statement Wednesday, with Chair Janet Yellen hosting a press conference afterward. 

Their statement and Fed Funds Rate forecasts remain largely unchanged, reflecting the fact that economic data has been slightly more upbeat in the last month or so, though 2015 growth forecasts were lowered, and unemployment expectations were raised higher, given the weakness realized in the first quarter. So, all in all, no real news here. 

Currently they are not compelled by the data to raise rates yet. While they continue to warn of rates moving higher at some near point, they are establishing expectations of a plodding path to get there. Further, the Fed member’s individual forecasts on the future path of rates over the next year vary widely, highlighting that there is no consensus view at the Fed of either the timing or scope of future interest rate hikes. 

In reflecting the weaker first quarter, the Fed anticipates real GDP at 1.9% for 2015. They also foresee the central tendency of real growth to range from 2% to 2.3% over the longer run. At the same time, they see unemployment at 5.25% at year-end, reasonably consistent with their longer-term views of 5% to 5.2%. In inflation data, they expect to see the Personal Consumption Indicator at 0.7% this year compared with a long-run projection of 2%. 

None of these are figures that would immediately cry out for an emergency level of zero interest rates. Yet, that is where we remain. The Fed does not believe a rate increase is warranted just yet, and claims there is no preset plan but data dependency. Like us, they continue to monitor both economic data and market movements, as well as external factors such as the Greek debt drama. 

While the Fed did not provide a clear sense of their timing, they did urge us to adopt the mindset that a rate rise will be “gradual” over time. Given the market’s recent fits and starts, our FOMC is being very cautious.



This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies and opportunities identified by Roosevelt. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Please contact us at 646-452-6700 if there is any change in your financial situation, needs, goals or objectives, or if you wish to initiate any restrictions on the management of the account or modify existing restrictions, or if you would like to request a copy of our Code of Ethics. Our current disclosure statement is set forth on our Form ADV Part II, available for your review upon request, and on our website, www.rooseveltinvestments.com.

« Click here to go to the previous page


The Roosevelt Investment Group, Inc. is an independent investment management firm that is not affiliated with any parent organization. The Roosevelt Investment Group, Inc. manages domestic equity, international equity, domestic fixed income, global fixed income, and balanced assets for primarily U.S. clients. The Roosevelt Investment Group, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and notice filed in all 50 states.

Please remember that in order to invest you must first read and understand the Form ADV Part 2A and our Privacy Policy.

Copyright© 2017. All rights reserved.