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Current Views

February 20, 2013: Climate Shift

Thoughts from Our Domestic Equity Team

The National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC) recently published a draft climate assessment report, engaging over 240 authors in its creation. Their conclusion is very similar to what we have been thinking about in our “Climate Shift” theme. The report talks about how climate change is already affecting the American people and how certain types of weather events have increased in both frequency and intensity.

Understanding how the climate is changing requires a consideration of fluctuations in the average climate as well as changes to “extremes”, such as storms, droughts and flooding. The impacts that are expected to have the greatest effect are those involving shifts in the frequency, intensity, duration and timing of extremes. These types of changes are often more difficult to study than changes in the average climate, due to a smaller data sample. That being said, most environmental research, including NCADAC’s, concludes that extreme climate events are increasing.

At present, our portfolio is focused on the adverse impacts of climate change on crops. The agricultural sector is expected to see increasing disruption from extreme heat, droughts, and heavy downpours. U.S. food security and farm incomes will also depend on how agricultural systems adapt to climate changes in other regions of the world. In addition, both in the near- and long-term, we anticipate that extreme weather will affect commodity prices. Based on our expectations, we will continue to calibrate our portfolio to take advantage of these broad changes.

Submitted by: Nainesh Shah, CFA – Senior Securities Analyst and Portfolio Specialist

This information is intended solely to report on investment strategies and opportunities identified by Roosevelt. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument. References to specific securities and their issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Please contact us at 646-452-6700 if there is any change in your financial situation, needs, goals or objectives, or if you wish to initiate any restrictions on the management of the account or modify existing restrictions, or if you would like to request a copy of our Code of Ethics. Our current disclosure statement is set forth on our Form ADV Part II, available for your review upon request, and on our website, www.rooseveltinvestments.com.

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